1. After the Bush administration, the country will have an extremely lopsided election with 100% of democrats and a fair amount of republicans and independents voting blue, no matter the candidate.
Recent evidence shows that I was far too hopeful, and I am still surprised. I thought most people wanted to stop losing lives in Iraq. I thought most people were being hurt by the economy. My assumptions must have been wrong. I now see that there are still many, many voters who want to stay in Iraq, and many, many voters who want the same leadership in the economy. I also thought that universal healthcare would be be a welcome matter, but here again, I was incorrect.
2. People who support Hillary Clinton are doing so because of her stance on issues.
This one is just as big of a surprise to me, because statement #2 is clearly false. If it were true, we would see every single HRC voter throwing his/her weight behind Barack Obama; as far as issues go, they are nearly in complete alignment. However, HRC supporters are taking stabs at Obama, threatening not to vote in the GE, and backing the stance “McCain in ‘08, HRC in ‘12″. Someone please explain this to me. It is utterly inconceivable. It’s like wanting a peanut butter and jelly sandwich with grape jelly, but you only have strawberry, and instead of eating the strawberry jelly, you eat peanut butter and mayonnaise until your mom gets back from the store in 4 years. It’s f–king fruit jelly, and you’ll probably never know the difference! Eat that sh-t, so you don’t have to swallow the mayonnaise!
Further, if HRC supporters think that Obama primary voters were sexist, what do they call not voting at all? Is it not also sexist to abstain from voting for a man because you favor a woman?
Someone explain these things to me…
June 11th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
I’m going to take a stab at that explanation you asked for, even though I don’t think you actually wanted it.
1. Since you didn’t reference your “recent evidence”, I can’t speak to it specifically, and I’m too lazy to go look. It’s probably worth remembering, though, that about 30% of the people do actually like Bush, and those people are pretty likely to go for McCain. It’s pretty conceivable to believe that some of those remaining 70% still believe in the Republican platform despite disliking Bush. It’s also very conceivable that some of those that disapprove of Bush just don’t like Obama. It’s also possible that many of those 70% just like McCain. I know I for one respect John McCain far more than George Bush, but I’m still undecided in the election. Under those circumstances, I could see McCain pulling 50% in a poll pretty easily.
2. The HRC vs. BO fight was pretty brutal. From overseas, that got far more attention than the general election. I talked to a Thai friend about the election once, and she knew HRC and BO but not McCain. The news media will switch its attention to something else now, and people will stop caring about the primaries. Everyone is going to forget about this whole fiasco by the end of the month, and the HRC’s supporters will see the light of the Obama star. Really, as you mentioned, they don’t have much other choice.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
Newest Gallup polls show Obama and McCain polling 48% to 42%. Their favorability ratings are at 58% and 56%, respectively. And this is the first time that BO has been ahead since March 1. I should have clarified that I was expecting numbers around 60-40 from the get-go regardless of who the candidates were for either side, and I thought those numbers would hold steady. My logic was wrong, though, and that was the reason for the post. It might have to do with the fact that I am not a polling/statistics expert, and I was basing my predictions on a personal perception of the world.
It’s interesting about your friend from Thailand. I wonder if they will follow the GE as closely when it comes near.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
I don’t think she followed it that closely, it just gets a crap-load of coverage.
I was thinking that the presidential elections were always fairly close. My memory might not be good, but I thought that they usually ran 50-50 most of the way. The Bush/Gore election was definitely close because Gore won the majority. The Bush/Kerry election was also close, because Kerry seemed to be winning for a lot of it, didn’t he? (I was on a boat on the Barrier Reef during most of that one.
)
June 12th, 2008 at 1:04 am
I figured if the dems played their cards right, they could have this shit wrapped up by now. But, honestly, I also assumed they’d fuck it up. Scott might be right that by the time the general election comes around, people will have forgotten the Clinton vs Obama stuff. Generally, however, I think most everybody except Hilary knew Obama was going to get the nomination for the last three months, and she just dragged it out much longer than she needed to.
I think Scott has a legitimate point about some people believing in the true Republican platform, too. After all, I myself am generally for smaller government (in particular areas–I’m also for universal healthcare) and a fiscally responsible government. Although I personally will be voting Democrat, it would be be tough for me to vote Republican even if I was on the fence. The party as a whole–not just Bush–has seemed to shift its platform in recent years.
As for #2, I think ppl who claim primary voters were sexist and so won’t be voting for Obama are just racist. There’s no difference in what I’m saying and what they’re saying. The fact that I don’t like Hilary has nothing to do with her gender. It has to do with the fact that I think she’s a huge corporate tool.
June 12th, 2008 at 8:07 am
I hypothesized that the Democratic leadership encouraged the Clinton vs. Obama fight for the publicity. As I mentioned before, McCain has gotten almost 0 coverage (at least overseas) for the last few months. In light of those polls Kyle referenced, it looks like I was wrong, or that strategy blew up in their faces.
I considered making that same point about HRC’s voters being racist. I find it hard to believe that anyone would be dumb enough to play the sexist card in that position.